桥水观点：市场到底了吗？和过去的市场底部数据对比

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Many of the key markers of an inflation-driven bear market bottom are still missing today— little real economic weakening, few signs the central bank is ready to move to easing, and, as of yet, not much repricing of equities beyond the direct drag from rising interest rates.

以通胀作为驱动力的熊市底部的许多关键信号至今仍然缺席——实际经济增速几乎没有减弱，同时几乎没有迹象表明央行准备重新采取宽松政策，而且到目前为止，除了美联储加息导致的股票以及资产重新定价之外（股价下跌）没有其他的影响。

Global equity markets are down more than 17% this year as central banks responded to strong inflation with a record pace of tightening. Have stocks fallen enough to see the bottom in the market, or is more pain ahead? One perspective we have found helpful when considering this question is comparing conditions today to past inflation-driven equity market bottoms.

由于各国央行以创纪录的紧缩步伐应对强劲的通胀，今年全球股市下跌超过 17%。股市下跌到足以看到金融市场筑底的程度，还是未来全球市场还会有更多的痛苦和下跌？在考虑这个问题时，我们发现一个有用的观点：我们可以将今天的情况与过去的通胀驱动的股市底部进行比较，从而得出有效的结论。

Bear markets typically unfold in a sequence: 1) rising interest rates push down equity prices, as any future cash flow is discounted to the present at a higher yield; 2) higher rates and growing economic uncertainty draw money out of risky assets, depressing equity prices further as risk premiums rise; and 3) the combination of the impact of rising discount rates, risk premiums, and declining asset prices leads to declining economic activity and earnings, creating more downward pressure on equities.

熊市通常按以下顺序展开：

1) 利率上升从而打压股票价格，因为任何未来现金流都以更高的收益率贴现到现在的股价上；

2) 更高的利率和不断增加的经济不确定性将流动资金和热钱从风险资产中抽走，随着风险溢价上升进一步压低股票价格；

3) 贴现率上升、风险溢价和资产价格下跌的综合影响导致经济活动和收益下降，给股市带来更大的下行压力。

The equity bottom typically does not come until 1) there is a meaningful period of easing sufficient to offset the negative economic momentum, and 2) equity prices fall enough that investors are incentivized to move back out the risk curve and buy stocks. The former typically means that central banks assess that the slowdown in economic activity has been large enough to bring inflation back under control. And the latter means equities typically decline much more than justified by higher interest rates, resulting in valuations that are low enough to draw investors back in.

股票底部通常不会出现，直：

1) 有一段有意义的宽松时期足以抵消负面的经济势头，以及

2) 股价下跌到足以激励投资者退出风险曲线并购买股票。

前者通常意味着中央银行评估经济活动的放缓程度足以使通货膨胀重新得到控制。后者意味着股票的跌幅通常远远超过利率上升所证明的跌幅，导致估值低到足以吸引投资者重返市场并重新买入并持有股票。

When we look at conditions today, the typical markers of an equity market bottom are not yet present. Inflation remains very high, and the economy remains relatively strong, such that a Fed easing does not seem likely (currently the Fed has only indicated that it will slow its tightening). And despite the drop in equity prices, long-term equity expected returns still look poor compared to bonds and cash—meaning investors still lack a strong incentive to jump back in. The Fed will likely need to see more weakness—and investors, lower prices—before equities find a floor and begin a sustainable climb.

当我们审视今天的情况时，我们发现股市底部的典型市场信号尚未出现。 现在市场的通胀仍然很高（7.7%），经济仍然相对强劲，因此美联储似乎不太可能放松（目前美联储仅表示将放缓紧缩）。

尽管股票价格下跌，但与债券和现金相比，股票的长期预期回报看起来仍然很差——这意味着投资者仍然缺乏重新投入的强烈动机。美联储可能需要看到更多的疲软——而投资者、更低的价格 - 在股市找到底部并开始可持续攀升之前。

The table below synthesizes economic conditions and equity pricing around inflation-driven bear market troughs in the US (i.e., cases where concerns around high inflation drove Fed tightening that led to the equity sell-off). Inflation is typically a lagging indicator; equities rallies have typically begun when inflation is still high. Instead, rallies begin when central banks see meaningful economic weakness and shift into gear to ease to stop the downturn and when equity markets have gone through a meaningful repricing.

下表综合了美国通胀驱动的熊市谷底附近的经济状况和股票定价（即，对高通胀的担忧推动美联储紧缩政策导致股票抛售的情况）。 通货膨胀通常是一个滞后指标；股市反弹通常是在通货膨胀率仍然很高的时候开始的。

相反，当央行看到显着的经济疲软并转向放松以阻止经济下滑时，以及股市经历了有意义的重新定价时，整个权益市场的反弹就开始了。

Historical cases are also illustrative of where we could be wrong. The main cases that did not see another leg down in the market were a) when inflation proved entirely driven by transitory factors and the central bank did not need to drive slowing to get inflation below target (as in 2018), and b) when the central bank decided to let inflation run much hotter (in the late ’60s as well as in emerging market cases like Turkey; we include a table synthesizing inflationary bear markets in markets outside of the US at the end of this report). We are watching for signs that we might be in either of these cases. As of now, the risk of this outcome still looks relatively low to us.

历史案例也说明了我们可能犯错的地方。没有看到市场再次下跌的主要情况：

a)通胀证明完全由暂时性因素驱动，央行不需要推动放缓以使通胀低于目标（如2018年），以

b) 当 中央银行决定让通货膨胀率高得多（在 20 世纪 60 年代后期以及在土耳其等新兴市场案例中；我们在本报告末尾提供了一张综合美国以外市场通货膨胀熊市的表格）。我们正在观察我们可能处于这两种情况中的任何一种的迹象。截至目前，这种结果的风险在我们看来仍然相对较低。

In the rest of this report, we discuss in more detail the drivers we described above of inflation-driven bear market bottoms through time. As noted, we exclude bear markets where high inflation was not a key driver, such as 1987 and 2009, and given how comparatively limited inflation concerns were in 2018, we also exclude that period. In each chart, the three months prior to the trough in equity markets is highlighted in red.

在本报告的其余部分，我们将更详细地讨论我们上面描述的通货膨胀驱动的熊市底部的驱动因素。如前所述，我们排除了高通胀不是主要驱动因素的熊市，例如 1987 年和 2009 年，并且鉴于 2018 年通胀担忧相对有限，我们也排除了那个时期。在每张图表中，股票市场低谷前的三个月以红色突出显示。

A Meaningful Period of Weak Growth Is a Common Feature of Equity Bottoms, but Growth Today Still Looks Roughly Normal

一段有意义的增长疲软时期是股市底部的一个共同特征，但今天的经济增长模式看起来仍然大致正常

Growth is typically below potential going into inflation-driven equity market troughs, as the Fed usually needs to see weak conditions to ease and turn the market. The main exception was 1984—the economy was growing modestly above potential but turning down fast, as shown in the chart below, and as we show on the next chart, unemployment was relatively high. Today, we’re coming off a period of very strong growth and now the economy has moderated but is still expanding at around potential.

进入通胀驱动的股市低谷时，增长通常低于潜力，因为美联储通常需要看到疲软的条件来放松和扭转市场。主要的例外是 1984 年——经济增长略高于潜力，但迅速下滑，如下图所示，正如我们在下一张图表中显示的那样，失业率相对较高。今天，我们正在经历一段非常强劲的增长时期，现在经济已经放缓，但仍在以接近潜力的速度增长。

Similarly, employment is also typically weak going into inflation-driven bear market bottoms. High unemployment is both an indicator and a cause of falling growth and inflation, incentivizing the Fed to step in and support the economy while also helping create the low-inflation conditions that would allow the central bank to do so. Today, unemployment is around all-time lows and tight labor markets are a major driver of high wage growth and resilient above-target inflation.

同样，进入通胀驱动的熊市底部时，就业通常也很疲软。高失业率既是增长和通胀下降的一个指标，也是其原因之一，激励美联储介入并支持经济，同时也有助于创造允许央行这样做的低通胀条件。如今，失业率处于历史低位附近，劳动力市场紧张是工资高增长和通胀高于目标的弹性的主要驱动力。

Equity Market Bottoms Typically Don’t Emerge Until the Implications of the Tightening Have Been Discounted; That Hasn’t Happened Yet

股市底部通常不会出现，直到美联储紧缩的影响被折现到下跌的股票价格中； 然而这到现在还没有发生

As discussed above, equity bear markets (and their troughs) typically occur in sequence. First, interest rates go up, dragging down equity prices via the discount rate effect on future cash flows. Higher rates and growing economic uncertainty, in turn, begin to pull money out of risky assets, pushing down equity prices further as risk premiums rise. Last, the combination of the impact of rising discount rates, risk premiums, and declining asset prices leads to declining economic activity and earnings, creating more downward pressure on equities. Troughs occur when there has been a material re-rating in equity pricing such that weakness in the economy is expected and risk premiums are high, setting up conditions for a bounce once the central bank eases enough to offset the downturn.

如上所述，股票熊市（及其低谷）通常依次发生：

首先，利率上升，通过贴现率对未来现金流的影响拖累股票价格。反过来，更高的利率和不断增加的经济不确定性开始将资金从风险资产中撤出，随着风险溢价上升进一步压低股票价格。最后，贴现率上升、风险溢价和资产价格下跌的综合影响导致经济活动和收益下降，给股市带来更大的下行压力。当股票定价出现实质性重新评级时，就会出现低谷，因此预计经济将疲软且风险溢价很高，一旦央行放宽政策足以抵消经济下滑，就会为反弹创造条件。

The chart below shows the average of the three components of equity returns around equity troughs—discount rates, risk premiums, and cash flow expectations. Typically, falling discount rates are already a support, while falling cash flow expectations and expanding risk premiums are a meaningful drag in the months prior to the bottom in equity markets.

下图显示了股票低谷附近股票回报的三个组成部分的平均值——贴现率、风险溢价和现金流预期。通常情况下，贴现率下降已经是一种支撑，而现金流预期下降和风险溢价扩大是股市触底前几个月的重要拖累。

As noted above, there is typically a meaningful increase in equity expected returns (shown below in excess of cash) before the turn in the market because investors need to be incentivized back into equities and out of safe assets following significant losses.

如上所述，在市场转向之前，股票预期回报通常会显着增加（下图显示超过现金），因为投资者需要在遭受重大损失后被激励回到股票并撤出安全资产。

Today, based on our read, the re-rating of equity prices has a way to go. Our estimate for long-term excess expected returns remains relatively low compared to history. Consistent with that, analyst consensus for long-term corporate cash flow growth has barely budged over the last year, not yet reflecting the cooling of the economy we expect to see.

今天，根据我们的解读，股票价格的大调整还有一段路要走。与历史相比，我们对长期超额预期回报的估计仍然相对较低。与此相一致的是，分析师对长期企业现金流增长的共识在过去一年几乎没有变化，尚未反映出我们预期会看到的经济降温。

Equity Bottoms Are Typically Accompanied by Inflation Turning Over; Today, Inflation Has Moderated, but Under the Hood, Wage Growth Has Picked Up the Baton

股市触底通常伴随着通胀反转；今天，通货膨胀有所缓和，但在幕后，工资增长接过了接力棒

While inflation is still high, it has come down from its peak over the past few months. In a number of the inflationary historical bear market cases, equities turned up just as inflation turned down from highs and discount rates fell. Across the historical cases, however, the turn in inflation was accompanied by meaningful economic weakness that required the Fed to choose between inflation and economic pain. And as discussed, this weaker growth and high unemployment was itself an ongoing downward pressure on inflation.

虽然通胀仍然很高，但已从过去几个月的峰值回落。在许多通货膨胀的历史熊市案例中，股票在通货膨胀从高位回落且贴现率下降时出现上涨。然而，纵观历史案例，通胀的转变伴随着显着的经济疲软，这要求美联储在通胀和经济痛苦之间做出选择。正如所讨论的，这种疲软的增长和高失业率本身就是对通货膨胀的持续下行压力。

Today, moderating inflation is not accompanied by weaker growth and inflation seems unlikely to hit central bank targets any time soon. As some of the commodity surges and acute supply chain challenges roll off, wage growth (running north of 5%) is picking up the baton and fueling the next leg of inflation. As a result, the Fed is not yet being forced to choose between weak growth and high inflation and is still able to concentrate primarily on its inflation mandate. It’s also worth noting that the Fed is already discounted to slow its pace of tightening, so any support to equities will need to come from the Fed easing more than what is already discounted.

今天，温和的通胀并没有伴随着疲软的增长，而且通胀似乎不太可能很快达到央行的目标。随着一些大宗商品的激增和严峻的供应链挑战的消退，工资增长（超过 5%）正在接过接力棒并助长下一波通胀。 因此，美联储尚未被迫在疲软增长和高通胀之间做出选择，并且仍然能够主要关注其通胀使命（将通胀控制在2%）。 还值得注意的是，美联储已经贴现以放慢紧缩步伐，因此对股市的任何支撑都需要来自美联储的宽松政策，而不是已经贴现的。

Equity Bottoms Are Typically Accompanied by a Significant Period of Easing; Today, the Fed Has Yet to Pause

股市触底通常伴随着一段重要的宽松时期；今天，美联储尚未暂停

Today, the Fed has stated that it might consider slowing its future pace of tightening. Typically, it takes much more than this to bring about the bottom in the equity market. It takes a long enough period and significant enough amount of easing to really offset economic weakness and bring about an upturn. The chart below shows this point. Note the format is a bit different from those shown above. We show equity market drawdowns, but this time the line in red illustrates the period when the Fed was actively easing. This highlights that the most significant drawdowns in US history have occurred after the Fed shifts to lowering rates.

今天，美联储表示可能会考虑放慢未来的紧缩步伐。通常情况下，股市触底所需要的远不止这些。要真正抵消经济疲软并带来好转，需要足够长的时间和足够多的宽松政策。下图显示了这一点。

请注意，格式与上面显示的格式略有不同。我们显示股市下跌，但这次红色线表示美联储积极宽松的时期。这突显出美国历史上最显着的资金缩减发生在美联储转向降息之后。

While we mainly focus on the US in this report, a similar pattern holds true in inflationary equity bear markets across other developed economies and emerging markets. There is a collection of cases where EM central banks eased fast enough and hard enough to offset a cash flow decline prior to any real weakening in employment (Turkey throughout the 2000s and Brazil in 2012). In these cases, ultimately, the central bank was really letting inflation go. Note this analysis excludes hyperinflation cases.

虽然我们在本报告中主要关注美国的金融市场情况，但类似的模式也适用于其他发达经济体和新兴市场的通胀股票熊市。在许多情况下，新兴市场中央银行的宽松政策速度足够快，力度也足够大，可以在就业真正减弱之前抵消现金流量下降（土耳其在整个 2000 年代和巴西在 2012 年）。

在这些情况下，最终，央行实际上是在放任通胀的不断飙升。 请注意，此分析不包括恶性通货膨胀案例。

作者：Dorian君