翻译练习：Covid-19：The Right Medicine For The World Economy（3）

病假工资减轻流行病的传播

(5)Just as important is to slow the spread of the disease by getting patients to come forward for testing when outbreaks are small and possible to contain. They may be deterred in many countries, including much of America, Where 28m people are without health coverage and many more have to pay for a large slug of their own treatment. People also need to isolate themselves if they have mild symptoms, as about 80% of them will. Here sick pay matters, because many people cannot afford to miss work. In America a quarter of employees have no access to paid sick leave and only scattered states and cities offer sickness benefits.Often the self-employed, a fifth of Italy's workforce, do not qualify. One study found that, in epidemics, guaranteed sick pay cuts the spread of flu in America by 40%

同样重要的是，当流行病爆发还在小规模，完全有可能控制的时候，就让病人去做测试，这样可以减缓疾病的传播。可是在许多国家，他们的病人可能不敢去检测，包括美国的大部分地区。在美国有2800万人没有医疗保险，更多人不得不支付他们治疗费用的绝大部分。人们如果有轻度的症状，还必须自我隔离——大概80%的人会这样。那么病假工资就变得很重要，因为很多人不可能承担失去工作带来的后果。在美国，四分之一的员工无法享受带薪病假，只有少量几个州和城市提供了病假补贴。通常意大利的个体经营者，五分之一的劳动者，他们没有资格领取这类补贴。一项研究发现，在疫情期间，确保发放病假工资可以使流感在美国的传播人数减少40%。

供应的紧缺与民众的恐慌对经济带来巨大的打击

(6)Sick pay also helps soften the blow to demand which, along with a supply shock and a general panic, is hitting economies. These three factors, as China shows, can have dramatic effect on output. Manufacturing activity there sank in February to its lowest level since managers were first surveyed in 2004. In the quarter to March the economy as a whole could shrink for the first time since the death of Mao Zedong.The OECD expects global growth this year to be its slowest since 2009. Modelling by academics at the Australian Ntional University suggests that GDP in America and Europe would be 2% lower than it would have been in the absence of a pandemic and perhaps as much as 8% lower if the rate of deaths is many times higher than expected. Financial markets are pricing in fear. The S&P 500 has fallen by 8% from its peak on February 19th. Issuance of corporate debt on Wall Street has more or less stopped. The yield on ten-year Treasuries dipped below 1% for the first time ever.

病假工资还能减轻对需求的打击，而供应的休克与民众的恐慌会打击经济。正像中国所显示的那样，这三个因素可以给产出带来令人惊讶的效果。中国2月份工业活动下降到2004年首次调查经理人指数以来最低的水平。截至3月份的这个季度里，整个经济出现了自毛泽东去世以来的首次萎缩。经合组织（OECD）预期今年全球增长会是自2009年以来最慢的一年。澳大利亚国立大学建立的模型显示，美国和欧洲的GDP会比没有大流行的情况下降2%，如果死亡率很多时候高于预期，则GDP会下降8%。金融市场的价格正在反映人们的恐惧。标普500从2月19日的峰值到现在已经下跌了8%。华尔已经基本停止发行公司债。而10年期国债有史以来首次跌破了1%。