战斗民族聚焦核威慑,俄罗斯一直在根据安全环境变化调整其核政策

这几天发了几篇关于核武器和涉核政策的帖子和视频,顺便把俄罗斯今年6月份刚刚颁布的《俄罗斯核威慑国家政策基本原则》发一下。请读者以英文作准,中文是用谷歌翻译的,没有精校。

此外,为了更好的了解俄罗斯的核武器及其学说,此处引用一段美国国会服务局最新出版的报告对俄罗斯核武器学说和部署的判断。

“在冷战期间,苏联重视核武器的政治和军事属性。而莫斯科许多分析家和学者认为,这不是冲突中首先使用核武器的做法。联盟将核武器纳入其战斗计划。冷战后,俄罗斯没有保留苏联使用”政策,并已对其核学说进行了多次修订,以应对对其安全环境和其常规部队的能力。结合军事演习和俄罗斯官员的公开声明,不断发展的学说似乎表明,俄罗斯可能更加依赖核武器,并可能威胁到在区域冲突中使用它们。这一学说使一些美国分析家得出结论认为,俄罗斯已经采用了“升级升级”战略,如果该战略失去与北约的冲突,可能会威胁使用核武器成员,以说服美国及其北约盟国退出冲突。俄罗斯官员与美国和欧洲的一些学者和观察员对此解释提出异议;但是,对于该学说为改变美国核态势提供了建议。

俄罗斯目前的核力量现代化周期始于2000年代初期,并可能在2020年代结束。在此外,2018年3月,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京宣布俄罗斯正在开发新型核能系统。尽管有些人将这些武器视为俄罗斯企图取得优于美国的优势的尝试,其他人则指出,这很可能代表俄罗斯对新兴的美国导弹防御能力的担忧。这些俄罗斯的新系统包括重型ICBM,能够携带多个弹头的超音速滑翔机飞行器、水下自动驾驶飞行器和核动力巡航导弹。装载于现有远程弹道导弹的超音速滑行飞行器于2019年底开始服役。”——From "Russia’s Nuclear Weapons-Doctrine, Forces, and Modernization" by US Congressional Research Searvice, Updated July 20, 2020.

美国国会服务局这份报告于2020年7月20日更新,对于我们研究俄罗斯核武器及其学说有参考作用。

战斗民族聚焦核威慑,俄罗斯一直在根据安全环境变化调整其核政策

附件:


俄罗斯核威慑国家政策基本原则(中英文对照)


The President of the Russian Federation 俄联邦总统

Executive Order 行政命令

On Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation
on Nuclear Deterrence

俄罗斯核威慑国家政策基本原则

With a view to provide for the implementation of the State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence I hereby resolve:

1. To approve the attached Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence.

2. This Executive Order shall enter into force upon its signing.

President of the Russian Federation

Vladimir Putin

Moscow, Kremlin

June 2nd, 2020

No.355

APPROVED

by Executive Order of the Presidentof the Russian Federation of June 2, 2020 No.355

为了执行《俄罗斯联邦核威慑国家政策》,我在此决心:

1.批准所附的俄罗斯联邦关于核威慑的国家政策基本原则。

2.本行政命令自签署之日起生效。

俄罗斯联邦总统

弗拉基米尔普京

莫斯科,克里姆林宫

2020年6月2日

355号

已批准

2020年6月2日俄罗斯联邦总统行政命令第355号

BASIC PRINCIPLES

of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence

I. General Provisions

1. These Basic Principles represent a strategic planning document in the area of ensuring defence and reflect the official view on the essence of nuclear deterrence, identify military risks and threats to be neutralized by implementation of nuclear deterrence, the principles of nuclear deterrence, as well as the conditions for the Russian Federation to proceed to the use of nuclear weapons.

2. The guaranteed deterrence of a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies is one of the highest state priorities. Deterrence of aggression is ensured by the entire military strength of the Russian Federation, including its nuclear weapons.

3. The State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence (hereinafter – “the State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence”) is a set of political, military, military-technical, diplomatic, economic, information and other measures, coordinated and united by a common design, implemented through reliance on forces and means of nuclear deterrence to prevent aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies.

4. State policy on Nuclear Deterrence is defensive by nature, it is aimed at maintaining the nuclear forces potential at the level sufficient for nuclear deterrence, and guarantees protection of national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the State, and deterrence of a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies. In the event of a military conflict, this Policy provides for the prevention of an escalation of military actions and their termination on conditions that are acceptable for the Russian Federation and/or its allies.

5. The Russian Federation considers nuclear weapons exclusively as a means of deterrence, their use being an extreme and compelled measure, and takes all necessary efforts to reduce nuclear threat and prevent aggravation of interstate relations, that could trigger military conflicts, including nuclear ones.

6. The normative and legal foundation of these Basic Principles is formed by the Constitution of the Russian Federation, universally recognized principles and norms of international law, international treaties of the Russian Federation on defence and arms control, federal constitutional laws, federal laws and other normative and legal acts and documents that regulate defence and security issues.

7. The provisions of these Basic Principles are mandatory for implementation by all federal government bodies and other government bodies and organizations that are involved in ensuring nuclear deterrence.

8. These Basic Principles may be further specified depending on the external and internal factors that influence defence implementation.

基本原则

俄联邦关于核威慑的国家政策

一,一般规定

1.这些基本原则是确保国防领域的战略计划文件,反映了对核威慑本质的官方看法,确定了通过实施核威慑而要消除的军事风险和威胁,以及核威慑原则作为俄罗斯联邦继续使用核武器的条件。

2.保证潜在的对手不受俄罗斯联邦及其盟国的侵略威慑是国家最高优先事项之一。俄罗斯联邦的整个军事力量,包括其核武器,确保了侵略的威慑力。

3.《政策》汇总了政治、军事、战术、外交、经济、情报以及其他措施的策略。这些措施在核威慑力量和手段的基础上实现,预防对俄罗斯及其盟友的侵略行为。

4.《政策》具有防御性,旨在将俄罗斯核力量维持在确保核威慑的水平,以确保俄罗斯国家主权和领土完整;慑止潜在对手,保护俄罗斯及其盟友免遭侵略;在发生军事冲突时防止军事行动升级,并以俄罗斯及其盟友可接受的条件终止军事行动。

5.俄罗斯将核武器视为威慑手段,是极端情况下的必要措施。俄罗斯会作出一切必要努力,以降低核威胁、防止国家间关系恶化诱发包括核冲突在内的军事冲突。

6.这些基本原则的规范和法律基础是由俄罗斯联邦宪法、公认的国际法原则和规范、俄罗斯联邦关于国防和军备控制的国际条约、联邦宪法、联邦法律和其他法律形成的规范国防和安全问题的规范性法律法规和文件。

7.这些基本原则的规定对于参与确保核威慑的所有联邦政府机构以及其他政府机构和组织是强制性的。

8.根据影响国防实施的外部和内部因素,可以进一步规定这些基本原则。


II. Essence of nuclear deterrence

9. Nuclear deterrence is aimed to provide comprehension by a potential adversary of the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies.

10. Nuclear deterrence is ensured by the presence in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of the combat-ready forces and means that are capable to inflict guaranteed unacceptable damage on a potential adversary through employment of nuclear weapons in any circumstances, as well as by the readiness and resolve of the Russian Federation to use such weapons.

11. Nuclear deterrence is ensured continuously in peacetime, in periods of a direct threat of aggression and also in wartime, up until the actual use of nuclear weapons.

12. The main military risks that might evolve into military threats (threats of aggression) to the Russian Federation due to changes in the military-political and strategic situation, and that are to be neutralized by implementation of nuclear deterrence, are as follows:

a) build-up by a potential adversary of the general purpose forces groupings that possess nuclear weapons delivery means in the territories of the states contiguous with the Russian Federation and its allies, as well as in adjacent waters;

b) deployment by states which consider the Russian Federation as a potential adversary, of missile defence systems and means, medium- and shorter-range cruise and ballistic missiles, non-nuclear high-precision and hypersonic weapons, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, and directed energy weapons;

c) development and deployment of missile defence assets and strike systems in outer space;

d) possession by states of nuclear weapons and (or) other types of weapons of mass destruction that can be used against the Russian Federation and/or its allies, as well as means of delivery of such weapons;

e) uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear weapons, their delivery means, technology and equipment for their manufacture;

f) deployment of nuclear weapons and their delivery means in the territories of non-nuclear weapon states.

13. The Russian Federation implements its nuclear deterrence with regard to inpidual states and military coalitions (blocs, alliances) that consider the Russian Federation as a potential adversary and that possess nuclear weapons and/or other types of weapons of mass destruction, or significant combat potential of general purpose forces.

14. While implementing nuclear deterrence, the Russian Federation takes into account the deployment by a potential adversary, in the territories of other countries, of offensive weapons (cruise and ballistic missiles, hypersonic aerial vehicles, strike unmanned aerial vehicles), directed energy weapons, missile defence assets, early warning systems, nuclear weapons and/or other weapons of mass destruction that may be used against the Russian Federation and/or its allies.

15. The principles of nuclear deterrence are as follows:

a) compliance with international arms control commitments;

b) continuity of activities ensuring nuclear deterrence;

c) adaptability of nuclear deterrence to military threats;

d) unpredictability for a potential adversary in terms of scale, time and place for possible employment of forces and means of nuclear deterrence;

e) centralization of governmental control over the activities of federal executive bodies and organizations involved in ensuring nuclear deterrence;

f) rationality of structure and composition of nuclear deterrence forces and means and their maintaining at the minimal level sufficient for implementing the tasks assigned;

g) maintaining permanent readiness of a designated fraction of nuclear deterrence forces and means for combat use.

16. The nuclear deterrence forces of the Russian Federation include land-, sea- and air-based nuclear forces.

二。核威慑的本质

9.当俄罗斯及其盟友受到侵略时,核威慑旨在保证俄罗斯对潜在对手实施不可避免的报复。

10.通过在俄罗斯联邦武装部队中派驻随时待命的部队和能够在任何情况下通过使用核武器对潜在对手造成保证的不可接受的损害的手段,以及通过以下方式确保核威慑俄罗斯联邦准备使用这种武器的决心和意志。

11.在和平时期,在直接侵略威胁期间和在战时期间,直到实际使用核武器之前,一直不断确保核威慑。

12.由于军事政治和战略局势的变化,可能演变成对俄罗斯联邦的军事威胁(侵略威胁)的主要军事风险如下,并应通过实施核威慑加以消除:

a)由潜在的敌对力量在与俄罗斯联邦及其盟国毗连的国家领土以及邻近水域中拥有拥有核武器运载工具的通用部队集团的建立;

b)由认为俄罗斯联邦是潜在对手的国家部署导弹防御系统和手段,中程和短程巡航和弹道导弹,无核高精度和高超音速武器,打击无人飞行器并进行定向能源武器;

c)在外层空间开发和部署导弹防御资产和打击系统;

d)各国拥有可用于对付俄罗斯联邦和/或其盟国的核武器和(或)其他类型的大规模毁灭性武器,以及运载此类武器的手段;

e)核武器,其运载工具,制造技术和设备的不受控制的扩散;

f)在无核武器国家的领土上部署核武器及其运载工具。

13.俄罗斯联邦对认为俄罗斯联邦是潜在对手并拥有核武器和/或其他类型的大规模毁灭性武器或重大战斗的个别国家和军事联盟(集团,联盟)实施核威慑通用部队的潜力。

14.俄罗斯联邦在实施核威慑的同时,考虑到潜在对手在其他国家领土内部署进攻性武器(巡航导弹和弹道导弹,高超音速飞行器,打击无人驾驶飞行器),定向能武器,可能用于对付俄罗斯联邦和/或其盟国的导弹防御资产,预警系统,核武器和/或其他大规模毁灭性武器。

15.核威慑原则如下:

a)遵守国际军备控制承诺;

b)确保核威慑活动的连续性;

c)核威慑适应军事威胁的能力;

d)就可能使用的力量和核威慑手段的规模,时间和地点而言,潜在对手的不可预测性;

e)集中政府对参与确保核威慑的联邦执行机构和组织的活动的控制;

f)核威慑力量和手段的结构和组成的合理性及其维持在足以执行所分配任务的最低限度的水平上;

g)维持指定数量的核威慑力量和作战手段的永久准备就绪。

16.俄罗斯联邦的核威慑力量包括陆、海和空基核力量。

III. Conditions for the transition of the Russian Federation to the use of nuclear weapons

17. The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.

18. The decision to use nuclear weapons is taken by the President of the Russian Federation.

19. The conditions specifying the possibility of nuclear weapons use by the Russian Federation are as follows:

a) arrival of reliable data on a launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies;

b) use of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction by an adversary against the Russian Federation and/or its allies;

c) attack by adversary against critical governmental or military sites of the Russian Federation, disruption of which would undermine nuclear forces response actions;

d) aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.

20. The President of the Russian Federation might, if necessary, inform the military-political leadership of other states and/or international organizations about the Russian Federation’s readiness to use nuclear weapons or about the decision taken to use nuclear weapons, as well as about the fact that nuclear weapons have been used.


三、俄罗斯联邦向使用核武器过渡的条件

17.俄罗斯联邦保留使用核武器的权利,以应对对其和/或其盟友使用核武器和其他类型的大规模毁灭性武器以及在对俄罗斯联邦进行使用而进行侵略的情况下当国家的生存正处于危险之中时

18.使用核武器的决定由俄罗斯联邦总统决定。

19.具体说明俄罗斯联邦使用核武器的可能性的条件如下:

a)获得有关攻击俄罗斯联邦和/或其盟国领土的弹道导弹的可靠数据;

b)对抗俄罗斯联邦和/或其盟国的对手使用核武器或其他类型的大规模毁灭性武器;

c)对手对俄罗斯联邦关键政府或军事地点的攻击,破坏它们会破坏核力量的响应行动;

d)当该国的生存处于危险之中时,使用常规武器对俄罗斯联邦进行侵略。

20.俄罗斯联邦总统如有必要,可将俄罗斯联邦准备使用核武器或已决定使用核武器的情况告知其他国家和/或国际组织的军事政治领导人。使用核武器的事实。


IV. Tasks and functions of federal government authorities, other governmentbodies and organizations for implementing state policy on nuclear deterrence

21. Overall direction of state policy in the area of nuclear deterrence is carried out by the President of the Russian Federation.

22. The Government of the Russian Federation implements measures to carry out the economic policy aimed at maintaining and developing nuclear deterrence assets shapes and exercises the foreign and information policy in the area of nuclear deterrence.

23. The Security Council of the Russian Federation shapes the basic principles of military policy in the area of nuclear deterrence, coordinates the activities of federal executive bodies and organizations involved in implementation of the decisions adopted by the President of the Russian Federation and related to ensuring nuclear deterrence.

24. The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, acting through the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, directly plans and carries out organizational and military measures in the area of nuclear deterrence.

25. Other federal executive bodies and organizations participate in the implementation of decisions adopted by the President of the Russian Federation and related to ensuring nuclear deterrence in accordance with their authority.

四、联邦政府当局、其他政府机构和组织执行国家核威慑政策的任务和职能

21.俄罗斯联邦总统负责核威慑领域的国家政策总体方向。

22.俄罗斯联邦政府采取措施执行旨在维持和发展核威慑资产形态的经济政策,并在核威慑领域实行外交和情报政策。

23.俄罗斯联邦安全理事会塑造核威慑领域军事政策的基本原则,协调参与执行俄罗斯联邦总统通过的决定并与确保有关的联邦执行机构和组织的活动核威慑。

24.俄罗斯联邦国防部通过俄罗斯联邦武装部队总参谋部直接计划并执行核威慑领域的组织和军事措施。

25.其他联邦行政机构和组织参加了俄罗斯联邦总统通过的,与根据其权限确保核威慑有关的决定的执行。

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