美国“战略模糊”政策在佩洛西事件上的应用

佩洛西声称其亚洲行程包括台湾，但美国众议院议长办公室官网公布的佩洛西亚洲行程中又没有列入台湾，究竟去与不去，飞机起飞、甚至已经抵达新加坡后，都还未定。这是一种模糊策略。

美国政府行政部门在此事上的应对同样采用模糊策略，不置可否。

美国政府发言人在29日被问及佩洛西行程时回答称：“与佩洛西行程有关的问题是我们不打算谈论的事情。现在，这只是一个假设。我们向任何国会议员、就他们旅行的地区提供建议和指导，并就当地地缘政治局势以及可能出现的任何国家安全问题提供建议。不过，我不会对一个假设进行讨论。”

(I know you’re asking specifically about the rhetoric that we’re hearing from China. But as it relates to the Speaker’s — the Speaker’s travels, it’s something that we’re just not going to speak to. Right now, that’s a hypothetical. We are — we are not — just — we’re just not going to speak on her schedule.As we have said multiple times, we give advice and — and guidance to any members of Congress where they travel, to the region they travel, whether — and advice on geopolitical situation in the region or in the country, and any national security issues that may arise.But again, I’m not going to speak to a hypothetical.）

此前，“美国政府高官”（“senior administration official”）28日在被问及佩洛西是否访台时，也同样回答，“我不打算深入讨论众议长可能的旅行问题的细节。我注意到她还没有宣布任何行程。这是她的决定。”

（On this question and others, I’m not going to get into characterizing the PRC’s position on things. I will leave that to them. I will note that President Xi used similar language in the conversation that the two leaders had back in November. But, you know, I’m not going to get into parsing the various metaphors that the PRC regularly tends to use on these issues. You know, as I said, the conversation between the two about Taiwan: It was direct and it was honest. And the two leaders, you know, basically discussed the fact that the United States and China have differences when it comes to Taiwan but that they have managed those for over 40 years, and that keeping an open line of communication on this issue is essential to continuing to do so. And for us, you know, direct communication between the leaders is the most essential aspect of that. I think I’ll leave it there.）

不仅关于佩洛西行程，在美国官网公布的中美元首会谈内容，美国在台湾问题上仍然保持了模糊性：“ 在台湾问题上，拜登总统强调，美国的政策没有改变，美国强烈反对改变台海现状或破坏台海和平与稳定的单方面努力。 ”（On Taiwan, President Biden underscored that the United States policy has not changed and that the United States strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. ）

相较于中国发布的新闻稿，显得更强调模糊性——中国新华社的原文是：我愿重申，美国的一个中国政策没有改变也不会改变，美方不支持台湾“独立”。

“战略模糊”政策的核心是让对手无法预测自己的未来行动方向。美国内部曾经就“战略模糊”与“战略清晰”进行辩论，二者均是博弈策略和手段，也是美国平衡和干预台海的策略应用。从佩洛西窜访一事可以看出，“战略模糊”政策仍是美国的台湾政策中的主导策略。