前所未有的高油价：全球供应安全面临风险？

9 月 28 日星期二，欧洲市场的天然气价格有史以来第一次突破了每 1,000 立方米 1,000 美元的关口。TTF Hub 10 月期货的价格达到每 1,000 立方米 1,031 美元。

有几个因素使欧洲大陆的天然气需求持续增长：在 COVID-19 复苏期间天然气需求不断增长、对即将到来的冬季供应的担忧以及其他能源市场的增长。由于布伦特原油价格超过每桶 80 美元大关，亚洲 JKM 和煤炭价格走高进一步推高了欧洲天然气价格的上涨，周二油价升至三年来的最高水平。此前，欧洲地下储气库的天然气注入也出现了重大延迟，欧洲的储气量目前为 71%，至少比五年平均水平低 15%。因此，12 月 21 日欧盟基准碳合约 (CFI2Zc1) 上涨 0.93 欧元至每吨 65.3 欧元，创下历史新高。

目前，全球市场对冬季天然气价格飙升的担忧正在升温。在即将到来的欧洲冬季，低于平均水平的温度可能会引发天然气价格的极端波动。如果天然气价格进一步上涨，将推高公用事业成本，由于天然气广泛用于家庭取暖和烹饪以及发电，这已经给面临多种与大流行相关挑战的欧洲消费者带来了沉重压力。

在整个欧洲，多个政府不得不进行干预并宣布支持降低天然气和电费。意大利政府公布了一项针对最弱势家庭的价值 30 亿欧元的计划，因为在天然气价格飙升的背景下，下一季度天然气和电力价格可能会上涨 30-40%。法国已表示将向超过 580 万低收入家庭一次性支付 100 欧元。在马德里，政府已承诺将价格降至 2018 年的水平，而英国政府则承诺确保没有客户在冬季遭遇天然气削减。

欧洲能源价格创纪录的飙升阻碍了 COVID-19 之后的复苏，家庭收入已经受到抑制，但现在公众对欧盟气候政策的审查和欧洲大陆新生的欧洲“绿色”能源转型越来越多。作为早期能源转型步骤的一部分，欧盟排放交易体系 (EU ETS) 下的欧洲公司必须继续购买和交易碳排放许可证。COVID-19 后的快速复苏和能源紧缩已将碳价推高了约 80%，从 2021 年 1 月的 34 欧元升至 9 月的 65 欧元。这种价格上涨通常会转嫁给消费者。

令人遗憾的是，最近的事态发展影响到仍在遭受COVID-19造成的破坏的整个社会阶层，证实了天然气出口国论坛(GECF)在平衡管理能源转型方面的长期立场。

GECF 持续支持能源转型中的各种(现实)途径——正如其最近在联合国能源问题高级别对话的声明中所述——呼吁、包容和不间断地获取现代能源，同时强调能源安全是最重要的全球议程项目。

从天然气供应商的角度来看，这个由 18 个成员组成的联盟共同代表了世界上天然气探明储量、生产和贸易的最大份额，继续恪守第 5 届 GECF 峰会通过的 2019 年马拉博宣言的精神。国家元首和政府首脑。《宣言》毫无保留地支持长期天然气合同和基于石油/石油产品指数的天然气定价的基础性作用，以确保对天然气资源开发的稳定投资。这一原则为最重要的天然气买家提供了坚实的基础，并为供应商提供了防止价格波动的保障。例如，卡塔尔的长期合同约占其天然气出口的 60%。阿尔及利亚、俄罗斯、

这当然是确保全球天然气供应不受限制、避免未来出现天然气危机的一种方法。

原文阅读：

On Tuesday, 28 September, the price for gas in the European market broke the $1,000 per 1,000 cubic metres barrier for the first time ever. The price for October future at the TTF Hub reached $1,031 per 1,000 cubic metres.

Several factors are perpetuating the unprecedented spike in the European continent: growing gas demand amidst COVID-19 recovery, concerns over upcoming winter supplies, and gains in other energy markets. High Asia JKM and coal prices are further adding to the price surge of European gas, with oil prices rising to their maximum in three years on Tuesday, as Brent surpassed $80 a barrel mark. There was also a preceding major delay in gas injections to European underground gas storage with storage capacity in the continent currently standing at 71%, at least 15% below the five-year average. As a result, the benchmark Dec-21 EU carbon contract (CFI2Zc1) was up €0.93 at €65.3 per tonne, hitting a new record high.

Currently, global markets are simmering with concerns about winter natural gas prices surge. Colder-than-average temperatures could trigger extreme volatility for natural gas prices in the upcoming winter in Europe. Any further hike in price will feed into utility costs, which are already weighing heavily on European consumers facing multiple pandemic-related challenges as gas is broadly used for home heating and cooking as well as electric power generation.

Across Europe, multiple governments have had to intervene and announce support to keep gas and electricity bills down. The Italian government has unveiled a plan worth €3bn for the most vulnerable households, as gas and electricity prices could increase by 30-40% in the next quarter in the context of surging gas prices. France has said it will send a one-off €100 payment to over 5.8 million low-income households. In Madrid, the government has promised to bring prices down to 2018 levels, whilst the UK government committed to ensure no customers will experience gas cuts during the winter.

A record-breaking surge in energy prices in Europe hampers the post-COVID-19 recovery with already suppressed household incomes, but now with increased public scrutiny of the EU climate policy and the continent’s nascent European ‘green’ energy transition. As a part of early energy transition steps, European companies under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are bound to keep buying and trading carbon permits. A rapid post-COVID-19 recovery and energy crunch have pushed the carbon price by about 80%, from €34 in January 2021 to as high as €65 in September. This price rise is typically passed down to the consumer.

These recent developments, which sadly affect the entire strata of society still reeling from the devastation caused by COVID-19, validate the long-held position of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) on a balanced approach to managing the energy transition.

The GECF’s continuous support of the various (realistic) pathways in the energy transition – as outlined most recently in its statement to the UN High-Level Dialogue on Energy – calls for

an inclusive and uninterrupted access to modern energy sources whilst highlighting energy security as a foremost global agenda item.

From the perspective of natural gas suppliers, the 18-member coalition together representing the largest share of proven reserves, production, and trade of natural gas in the world, maintains adherence to the spirit of 2019 Malabo Declaration, adopted at the 5th GECF Summit of Heads of State and Government. The Declaration unreservedly supports the fundamental role of long-term gas contracts as well as the gas pricing based on oil/oil products indexation, to ensure stable investments in the development of natural gas resources. Such principle provides a solid base for, most importantly, natural gas buyers as well as supplies protection against price volatility. For example, Qatar's long-term contracts represented around 60% of its natural gas exports. Algeria, Russia, and other GECF Member Countries have also favoured and will continue to rely on long-term contracts with pricing indexed to oil.

That is certainly one way to ensure unabated supply of gas to all parts of the world and avoid a future gas crisis.

本文译自GECF