前两天刚和朋友聊了《霍华德·马克斯是如何投资地产的？》，昨天晚上巴菲特在一年一度的投资界“春晚”——2025年伯克希尔・哈撒韦股东大会上也被问及在全球不确定环境下如何进行房地产投资。现将相关内容分享给大家：

一、英文原文：

My name is [ Jacky Han]. I’m from China and now work in Toronto, Canada. This is my eighth Berkshire Hathaway meetings at this point. I’ve probably spent more time with you than most people spend on Netflix. As you might guess, coming from a Chinese family, we’ve always had a soft spot for real estate. So your question isn’t why don’t you own a house. It’s why are you still buying stocks instead of more property. So here is my question. With today’s high interest rates and global uncertainty, do you still believe in being ready when others are fearful or the value investing facing new challenges in today’s environment? Thank you.

Warren Buffett: Yes. Well, in respect to real estate, it’s so much harder than stocks in terms of negotiation of deals, time spent, the involvement of multiple parties. And the ownership, usually when real estate gets in trouble, you find out you’re dealing with more than an equity holder.

But there have been times when large amounts of real estate have changed hands at bargain prices. But usually, stocks were cheaper, but they were a lot easier to do.

So Charlie did more real estate because Charlie enjoyed real estate transactions, and he actually did a fair number of them in the last 5 years of his life. But he was playing a game that was an interesting game to him. But I think if he — if you asked him to make a choice when he was 21 if he had either be in stocks exclusively the rest of his life or real estate the rest of his life, he would have chosen the stocks in the second.

There’s just so much more opportunity. At least in the United States, there’s so much more opportunity that presents itself in the security market than it does in real estate. And in real estate, you’re dealing with — usually dealing with a single owner or a family that owns maybe a large property they’ve had a long time. Maybe they borrowed too much money against it. Maybe the population trends are against them.

But to them, it’s an enormous decision. When you walk down to the New York Stock Exchange, you can do billions of dollars’ worth of business totally anonymous, and you can do it in 5 minutes. And the trades are complete when they’re complete.

In real estate, when you make a deal, a big deal with a distressed lender, and when you sign the deal, then you go into another phase. I mean, then people start negotiating more things and more things. And it’s a whole different game. And a different type of person, to some extent, enjoys the game.

We did a few real estate deals that came our way in 2008 and '09. But the amount of time that they would take us compared to doing something intelligent and probably better in securities, there was just no comparison. I mean, in a real estate deal, every sentence is as important as a person. And in stocks, if somebody needs to sell 20,000 shares of Berkshire or something and they call us that the price is right, it’s done in 5 seconds. And it closes all the time with the people who you certainly wouldn’t want to have married your daughter or they behave well actually in stocks.

Partly that’s because they’re probably having their wires or phones or whatever it is recorded as to what they’ve said and everything. But the completion rate for working on anything in stocks is, assuming you got a meeting of the minds on prices, essentially 100% in real estate. And it just begins when you agree on deals, and then they take forever.

So for a guy at 94, it’s not the most interesting thing to get involved in something where the negotiations could take years. And we have the capability. There have been some huge failures. And in fact, if you go all the way back to Zeckendorf in the 1960s, he was going to change the world in Century City out in California as a product of his. And if you go to Uris, if you go to — he was sitting on top of the world with the Uris Buildings.

And so people tend to get in trouble in that business. The banks usually don’t want to recognize it, but that takes a long time to go through the bank processes. They just got sort of redoing the musk cologne that he made that — when he was buying it 3 years ago. The company that’s now X.

And 3 years to work out a transaction that — where you’ve got parties on both sides that aren’t ready to act, then we find it much better when people are just ready to pick up the phone and you can do hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of business in the day. I’ve been spoiled, but I like being spoiled, so we’ll keep it that way.

二、原文翻译：

第4个问题：你好，我叫韩杰奇（Jacky Han），来自中国，目前在加拿大多伦多工作，这是我第八次参加伯克希尔的股东大会，我花在参加您的股东大会上的时间，可能比大多数人花在刷Netflix（注：一家全球知名的流媒体服务提供商）上的时间还要多。

您可能知道，中国家庭对房地产总有一种特殊的情结。所以我的问题不是“为什么不买房”，而是“为什么还在买股票而不是买更多房产”。

所以这是我的问题:在如今高利率和全球局势不确定的情况下，您是否仍然坚信“别人恐惧时我贪婪”这一理念，还是说价值投资在当下环境中面临着新的挑战呢？谢谢！

沃伦·巴菲特：是的。嗯，关于房地产，相比股票，它的交易谈判复杂得多，耗时更长，涉及多方参与。而且，当房地产陷入困境时，你通常会发现要应付的不只是股东，还有更多利益相关者。

不过，历史上确实有过大量房地产以低价易主的时候。但通常情况下，股票更便宜，而且交易起来也容易得多。

查理过去做了更多房地产方面的交易，因为他喜欢房地产交易，实际上，在他生命的最后五年里，他做了不少这类交易。但对他而言，这只是一场有趣的游戏。如果在他21岁时问他，余生只选股票还是房地产，我想他会选股票。

因为股票市场的机会要多得多。至少在美国，证券市场所提供的机会比房地产市场多得多。在房地产领域，你打交道的对象通常是一个单一的业主，或者是一个拥有一处大型房产且持有很久的家庭。也许他们以这处房产借了太多的钱。也许人口趋势对他们不利。但对他们来说，卖房是一个极其重大的决定。当你走进纽约证券交易所，你可以完全匿名地进行价值数十亿美元的交易，而且五分钟内就能完成。交易一旦达成，就算彻底完成了。

在房地产领域则不同。当你和一家陷入困境的贷款机构达成大额交易后，签字只是开始，随后会陷入无休止的条款拉锯战。这完全是另一种游戏，某种程度上，只有特定类型的人会乐在其中。

在2008年和2009年，我们做了几笔找上门来的房地产交易。但比起在证券市场上做一些明智且可能收益更好的投资相比，这些交易耗费的时间实在是太多了，根本不成比例。我的意思是，房地产交易中，合同里的每个条款都像在和人博弈；而股票交易呢？如果有人要卖出2万股伯克希尔的股票之类的，而且他们打电话给我们说价格合适，5秒钟就能成交。——即便对方是你绝不想把女儿嫁过去的人，在股市里也能痛快履约。

部分原因可能是电话录音约束了他们的言行。但股票交易中，只要价格谈妥，基本上交易的完成率是100%；而在房地产交易中，谈妥价格只是马拉松的开始，后续的事情没完没了。

所以，对一个94岁的人来说，参与那种谈判可能要持续数年的事情，实在没什么吸引力。当然，我们有能力处理房地产交易，但房地产行业有过太多惨痛教训。比如：20世纪60年代的泽肯多夫（William Zeckendorf），他曾在加州打造世纪城，野心勃勃要改变世界；还有尤里斯大厦（Uris Buildings）的辉煌时期……但这些最终都陷入困境。

所以人们在这个行业里很容易陷入困境。银行通常不愿意承认这一点，处理不良贷款的过程漫长到令人崩溃。比如某公司三年前收购的香水品牌，现在还在重组——三年了，交易双方依然僵持不下。相比之下，我们更享受那种“打个电话当天就能敲定数亿美元生意”的高效。

我已经被股票交易这种便捷的方式“宠坏”了，但我就喜欢这样。所以，我们会继续保持这种方式。

三、精华总结：

巴菲特认为房地产的投资比股票要更复杂、更困难。

房地产投资：无论是沟通、谈判，还是交割，牵扯的人和环节都非常多。要完成一笔房地产交易，不仅流程繁琐，周期也很长，变数也非常多，因此要在房地产中谈成一笔交易、拿到好价格，非常不容易。

投资股票：有一个巨大的优势，就是每一秒都可以看到无数机会，尤其是在美国市场。相比之下，房地产交易是慢节奏的，而且高度依赖个人沟通和谈判。

十五的投资笔记

记录基金行业形形色色的人和事，我们想证明：做正直的人，做正确的事，赚正常的钱，一样可以过上富有而快乐的生活。

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