莫名堂观察：拿下格陵兰，美国有依据吗？

寒冷的格陵兰，过去这一年成了热点。关于特朗普为什么觊觎这块一向被认为鸟不拉屎的地方，又关于这地方到底有什么宝藏，又关于得到它美国能得到什么好处，等等，牙慧

已经很多了，我就不去捡来再说。

说说美国主张的这个权利有没有依据。

格陵兰历史简介

Greenland was given the name “Green land” by Viking explorer Erik the Red, who is believed to have landed there in 982. The island was named to make it more attractive to settlers, who arrived a few years later. It became part of Denmark when it was colonised by the Danes about 300 years ago. In 1933 an international court - a predecessor to the International Court of Justice - ruled that Greenland belonged to Denmark, rejecting a claim from Norway. Since then it’s been an official part of the Kingdom of Denmark - which is made up of Denmark, the Faroe Islands and Greenland. Greenland has had home rule since 1979 when it was able to start setting its own laws and elect its own prime minister. These powers were expanded in 2009 when Greenlandic was also recognised as its official language. Danish sovereignty dates back centuries, and international recognition has never seriously been overturned. (格陵兰的名字就是“绿色的土地”，得名于红胡子维京海盗艾瑞克，他在982年登陆此地。距今300年前，因为殖民的关系，丹麦人占据了此岛。1933年，在一次与挪威的领土争端中，当时的国际法庭拒绝了挪威的诉求，此后，格陵兰成为丹麦的一部分。1979年，格陵兰获得了地方自治权，【也就是自己管理自己的事务，而不是事事都由中央政府决定。这与独立前的爱尔兰和现在的苏格兰类似】。)

美国与格陵兰的关系Historical relationship between the US and Greenland

There has been longstanding US interest in acquiring Greenland, with the USA proposing to purchase the island in 1867 and again in 1946 (a land swap was also proposed in 1910). The idea was floated again by military chiefs in 1955, though no formal request was made. A treaty between the USA and Denmark in 1916, confirming the purchase of the Danish West Indies (now the US Virgin Islands) by the USA, also included a declaration that the US Government would not object to the Danish Government extending their political and economic interests to the whole of Greenland (美国对格陵兰的兴趣由来已久，1867年美国就提出过购岛的想法，1910年又祭出交换土地，即land swap，1946年再次提出购岛。但均未正式付诸实施。1916年，美国与丹麦签订协议，从丹麦手中购得今天的美属维尔京群岛，表示不反对丹麦政府将其政治和经济利益扩大到整个格陵兰岛。)

The USA has a military presence in Greenland dating back to the Second World War. Following the occupation of Denmark in 1940 by Nazi Germany, the USA concluded an “Agreement relating to the Defense of Greenland” with the Danish ambassador to the USA which allowed the US to establish military bases on the island. The USA considered Greenland’s strategic location vital to countering German submarines and securing shipping routes. (美国在格陵兰的军事存在始于二战期间，那时，丹麦已经被纳粹德国占领，美国政府与当时丹麦驻美大使签署了防御格陵兰的协议，这对于阻止德国的潜艇和确保海路的通畅至关重要。)

Both the USA and Denmark were founding members of NATO in 1949, and this was followed by the 1951 US-Denmark “Defense of Greenland” agreement which recognised, in the context of the NATO alliance, that Denmark may need assistance from the USA in defending Greenland and permitted the establishment of US military bases on the island. The agreement was updated in 1981 and again in 2004.（战后，美、丹两国均成为北约的发起国，随后1951年美丹防御格陵兰协议被确认，丹麦允许美军在格陵兰建立军事基地。此协议1981,2004年被更新。）

What is the relationship between Greenland and Denmark? 格陵兰和丹麦是什么关系？

Greenland has been Danish territory for centuries and part of the Kingdom of Denmark since 1953. It gained home rule in 1979, becoming self-governing in its internal affairs, while remaining part of the Kingdom of Denmark. It also then left the then European Community (now the European Union) in 1983. A new self-government act was adopted in 2009, granting Greenland further autonomy. Denmark retains responsibility for Greenland’s foreign affairs and defence policy, and the Danish krone remains Greenland’s currency. （格陵兰是丹麦的领地已经有数个世纪了，1953年成为丹麦的一部分，1979年获得地方自治权。2009年开始，其自治地位更加扩大。丹麦保留外交权、防御权和货币权）

Greenland receives an annual subsidy from Denmark, which will be reduced if revenues from Greenland’s mineral resources exceed a certain level. The act also sets out a process for Greenland to gain independence, requiring consent from Greenland’s parliament (the Inatsisartut) and its people in a referendum, with independence terms to be negotiated with Denmark. （格陵兰每年从丹麦政府处获得财政补贴……同时规定，如果格陵兰试图独立，须经丹麦议会批准，并在格陵兰进行全民公投）

In April 2023, a constitutional commission comprising members of parties represented in the Greenland’s parliament presented a draft constitution for a post-independence Greenland, but there were no immediate plans to adopt it. In late September 2024, the government established a commission to draw up proposals for how to move forward with independence.

In January 2025, Greenland’s outgoing Prime Minister, Múte Egede, said it was time to take the next step towards independence. An opinion poll in the same month indicated that 56% of Greenlanders were in favour of independence, but that 45% were opposed if it meant a deterioration in their living standards. （从2023年起，格陵兰独立已经启动……一项民意测验显示，56%的格陵兰人同意独立，45%的人反对）

从上面的fact-checking 可以看出，1，丹麦对格陵兰的主权是得到包括美国在内的国际社会承认的；2，既然格陵兰从丹麦获得地方自治权(home rule)，说明格陵兰的离心离德也不是一天两天，并且，从2023年开始已经密锣紧鼓的进行起来了。3，上面提到，“1951年美丹防御格陵兰协议被确认，丹麦允许美军在格陵兰建立军事基地。此协议1981，2004年被更新。” 按照上两次更新的频率（分别是30年，23年），那么，美丹协议很可能在近年就面临是否再次更新。叠加第二条的事实，如果格陵兰独立（从目前的民意调查看，独方占优），那就不是美丹签署协议，而是美国与格陵兰签署了（如果美国承认格陵兰独立的话）。

因此，特朗普政府在最近一年里对丹麦和格陵兰反复喊话，就意味深长了。在强权即公理(might makes it right)的时代，这种做法司空见惯；但在讲求国际秩序的今天，特朗普此举肯定是不受国际社会多数的待见的。国际关系领域有一个重要的派别，那就是现实主义派，其代表人物是汉斯×摩根索，此人有个著名的学生，就是我们熟知的基辛格。对这一派来说，首先，政治就是对权力的追求；其次，有权不用，争夺权力干啥？冷战结束后，这一派的声音感觉上不那么大了，但并未消失。就像门罗主义，好多年没有听闻了，但是依旧根深蒂固在一些人的心中。特朗普政府的一些做法，看上去令人费解，其实，这不过是下面这些观点体现：

International law is a tool strong countries use when convenient. When it stops serving them, they ignore it.

Why is this huge strategic asset in the hands of someone who can’t defend it?

特朗普等人认为，目前这个基于规则的世界，让美国作茧自缚，虽然这些规则都是美国参与制定的，他要打破所谓的常态（Norm-breaking）。其实，这也是“美国例外论America Exceptionalism”在今天的还魂——规则是制约其他国家的，而不是制约美国自己。国际法，对美国有用的，就用，对美国不利的，就不用。法律是跟着权力（power）走的，legal follows power

当然，他口口声声要one way or another拿下格陵兰，有时候，这也只是他极致施压的一种体现，他可以选择TACO，他确实这么干过（比如关税）；他也可以“不塌”（比如对马杜罗），他也确实这么干过，他是故意玩“胁迫模糊” （coercive ambiguity），让你猜不透他的真实意图。

我们无须去猜他最后是否真的会拿下格陵兰，但是，只要他能让美国对那里的局面有完全的掌控，吞并不吞并又有什么大的分别？