《经济学人》双语：CES芯片短缺将引发电子产品涨价？

原文标题：

Memory lapse

The AI frenzy is creating a big problem for consumer electronics

Prices are rocketing for an essential component

储存芯片短缺

人工智能热潮给消费电子产品带来了一个巨大难题

重要部件的价格正在飙升

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THE WORLD’S gadget-makers—who assembled this week in Las Vegas for the Consumer Electronics Show—would be forgiven for harbouring mixed feelings about the year ahead.

本周，全球电子产品制造商齐聚拉斯维加斯参加消费电子展，他们对新一年的行业前景心怀复杂情绪，这完全可以理解。

Excitement over the prospect of clever new devices powered by artificial intelligence is as strong as ever.

人工智能驱动的新潮智能设备让人满心期待，市场热情依旧高涨。

Yet by gobbling up memory chips, which are essential for everything from smartphones and personal computers (PCs) to gaming consoles and cars, AI is creating a supply crunch for electronics-makers.

但人工智能会大量消耗存储芯片，而存储芯片又是智能手机、个人电脑、游戏机和汽车等几乎所有产品的必需品，这导致电子产品制造商面临供应短缺的难题。

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Jeffrey Clarke, chief operating officer of Dell, a manufacturer of computers, has called the situation “the most unprecedented mismatch in demand and supply” he has ever seen.

戴尔电脑的首席运营官杰弗里·克拉克称，当前局面是他从业以来“前所未有的供需失衡状况”。

Xiaomi, a Chinese smartphone-maker, has warned of delays and rising prices.

中国智能手机制造商小米也发出预警，称产品交付或将延迟，售价也会上涨。

Analysts predict that prices for PCs could jump by 15-20% in response.

分析师预测，受此影响，个人电脑的价格可能会上涨15%-20%。

IDC, a data firm, reckons that if the situation persists, global smartphone shipments could fall by as much as 5% this year, and PC sales by roughly twice that.

数据机构IDC估计，若现状持续而得不到改善，今年全球智能手机出货量可能下降多达5%，而个人电脑销量的下滑幅度约为前者的2倍。

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Semiconductors are a cyclical business, prone to swing from surplus to shortage.

半导体行业属于周期性产业，容易出现供过于求和供不应求的周期性波动。

Yet this cycle may be different, as demand for AI reshapes how memory chips are made, priced and allocated. For consumers, the consequences could last for years.

但这一轮行业周期可能不太一样，因为人工智能需求正在重塑存储芯片的生产模式、定价机制与分配方式。对消费者而言，由此产生的影响可能会持续数年之久。

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At the centre of the squeeze is DRAM, the memory used in smartphones, laptops and servers.

引发此次供应紧张的核心是DRAM（动态随机存取存储器），它是智能手机、笔记本电脑和服务器的核心存储部件。

Advanced AI processors, such as those made by Nvidia, depend on a specialised variant known as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which stacks chips vertically to increase speed while reducing power use.

英伟达等企业生产的先进人工智能处理器，需要用到一种特殊类型的存储芯片--HBM（高带宽存储器），这种芯片采用垂直堆叠设计，既能提升运行速度，又能降低功耗。

The rapid construction of data-centres has sent demand for HBM soaring.

数据中心的大规模快速建设，使得HBM的需求急剧攀升。

Producing it is resource-intensive: HBM requires three to four times as many silicon wafers as standard DRAM.

HBM的生产属于资源密集型工艺：HBM所需的硅片是标准DRAM的3-4倍。

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Supply is highly concentrated. Just three firms—SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics of South Korea, and Micron of America—rake in more than 90% of global DRAM revenue.

芯片供应呈现高度集中的市场格局。仅三家企业——韩国的SK海力士、三星电子以及美国的美光科技——就占据了全球DRAM90%以上的营收。

All three are switching capacity to HBM, which will account for half of global DRAM revenue by the end of the decade, up from 8% in 2023, reckons Bloomberg Intelligence, a research group.

这三家企业均在调整产能布局，向HBM倾斜。研究机构彭博资讯预计，到2030年，HBM在全球DRAM总营收里的占比，会从2023年的8%涨到50%。

HBM typically yields operating margins of 50% or more, compared with 35% for standard memory.

HBM的营业利润率通常可达50%乃至更高，而标准存储芯片的营业利润率仅为35%。

Investors have rewarded the strategy. Since the start of 2025 the trio’s share prices have risen by an average of 200% (see chart 1).

这一转型策略获得了投资者的认可，2025年年初至今，这三家企业的股价平均上涨了200%（见图表1）。

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But the flip side is that more basic memory chips, which account for 15-40% of the cost of smartphones and PCs, are becoming scarcer and costlier.

但负面影响也随之显现：在智能手机和个人电脑成本中占比15%-40%的普通存储芯片，供应量越来越少，成本也越来越高。

The price for the DRAM found in most consumer electronics, known as DDR 4, has risen by 1,360% since April 2025 (see chart 2).

多数消费电子产品所采用的DDR4规格DRAM，价格自2025年4月起涨幅达到了1360%（见图2）。

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The impact will be uneven.

这一轮芯片短缺的影响程度将因企业而异。

Apple, with its pricey i-gadgets and enormous scale, will be better placed to absorb higher costs and secure supply.

苹果公司凭借旗下定位高端的电子产品以及庞大的市场规模，将更有能力消化上涨的成本，同时保障芯片供应稳定。

Samsung will benefit from in-house memory production.

三星也会得益于自研自产存储芯片的优势。

Others are not so lucky. Asus, a PC-maker, raised prices for its laptops on January 5th. Xiaomi has said memory costs will have a “big impact” on margins.

其他公司就没有那么幸运了。华硕公司已于1月5日上调了旗下笔记本电脑的售价。小米方面表示，存储芯片成本的上涨将对公司利润率造成“重大影响”。

Carmakers may feel the strain most: as vehicles incorporate more electronics, the amount of DRAM per car is growing rapidly.

车企面临的压力可能最大：由于汽车搭载的电子设备日益增多，每辆车所需的DRAM用量正在快速攀升。

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Relief will come slowly. Memory-makers plan to spend about $61bn on capital investment for DRAM this year, a 14% increase on 2025.

芯片供应紧张的缓解速度会比较迟缓。存储芯片制造商计划今年在DRAM方面投入约610亿美元资本开支，较2025年增长14%。

But new capacity takes as long as two years to come online.

但新增产能的落地投产往往需要长达2年的时间。

Moreover, 60-70% of planned investment is earmarked for HBM, reckons Jukan Choi of Citrini Research, a firm of analysts.

不仅如此，分析机构西特里尼研究的分析师朱坎·崔认为，计划投资金额里有60%-70%都被划定用于HBM相关项目。

Chinese producers, which have become big suppliers of basic DRAM in recent years, are unlikely to plug the gap; they too are focusing on HBM.

中国生产商近年来已成为基础型DRAM主要供应商，也难以填补这一供应缺口；他们同样正将研发和生产重心转向HBM。

For now, only an unravelling of the AI boom would ease the shortage.

就目前情况而言，只有人工智能热潮出现消退，芯片短缺的局面才会得到缓解。

Consumers may soon feel the pain.

消费者可能很快就会感受到价格痛苦。

（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇583左右）

原文出自：2026年1月10日《TE》Business版块

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【重点句子】（3个）

Semiconductors are a cyclical business, prone to swing from surplus to shortage.

半导体行业属于周期性产业，容易出现供过于求和供不应求的周期性波动。

But the flip side is that more basic memory chips, which account for 15-40% of the cost of smartphones and PCs, are becoming scarcer and costlier.

但负面影响也随之显现：在智能手机和个人电脑成本中占比15%-40%的普通存储芯片，供应量越来越少，成本也越来越高。

For now, only an unravelling of the AI boom would ease the shortage.

就目前情况而言，只有人工智能热潮出现消退，芯片短缺的局面才会得到缓解。

自由英语之路