台风“灿都”强度路径及影响舟山降水成因分析

摘要：基于欧洲中期天气预报中心的 ERA5 再分析数据、浙江省自动气象探测站数据等，对2021年14号台风“灿都”（Chanthu）的移动路径和强度变化进行分析，对路径和强度的预报偏差机理进行研究，初步探讨其影响舟山的降水成因。结果表明：台风“灿都”核心区范围小，外围环流较为广阔；路径偏差主要与副热带高压与大陆高压有关，副热带高压预报偏强，南支高压被低估；台风“灿都”在东海北部海域回旋时处于高压区的包围中，没有明显的引导气流；较高的海表面温度为超强台风和强台风的维持提供了热力条件；台风“灿都”在舟山的降水特征表现为小时雨强不强、持续时间长、累计降水量可观。定海西南侧出现强降水主要是受到山区地形影响以及水平方向风速差。

关键词：台风“灿都” 副热带高压 强降水 路径偏差 强度变化

Abstract：Based on the data of ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the automatic meteorological stations in Zhejiang Province, we analyze the path and intensity of No. 14 typhoon "Chanthu" in 2021 and conduct a mechanical study of the forecast biases of its path and intensity. Moreover, the impact of typhoon "Chanthu" on the precipitation in Zhoushan is also discussed in this paper. The results show that the core area of typhoon "Chanthu" is small with broad peripheral circulation. The path deviation of typhoon "Chanthu" is mainly related to the subtropical high and continental high. The forecast of subtropical high is stronger and the southern branch of continental high is underestimated. The typhoon is surrounded by high pressure when it circles in the northern East China Sea without obvious steering flow. The higher SST provides thermal conditions for maintaining super and severe typhoon. The precipitation of typhoon “Chanthu”in Zhoushan are characterized by weak hourly precipitation intensity, long duration and considerable accumulated precipitation. The heavy rainfall in the southwest of Dinghai is mainly due to the influence of mountainous terrain and horizontal wind speed difference.

Key words：typhoon "Chanthu"; subtropical high; heavy rainfall; path deviation; intensity

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