美论坛：美国切断华为获取美国技术渠道后，华为还能独善其身吗

无论是高通、台积电、三星、还是联发科，使用的设备或者技术大多都是美国的，背后的资本也多多少少与美国相关，所以这也是美国断供华为最大的底气所在。但遭遇断供的华为，目前只有设计高端芯片的能力，并没有独立生产制造芯片的能力，而国内最先进的中芯国际也并不能帮助华为把他们设计的高端芯片生产出来，因为没有生产高端芯片的设备。美版知乎论坛上就有国外网友发起这样的提问：如果美国切断了华为获取美国技术的渠道，华为还能生存下去并继续发展吗? 让我们来看看国外民间网友的看法吧

论坛话题

中国香港网友的观点

When the United States initiated aggressive sanctions against the Chinese telecommunications firm Huawei, which included the imposition of the "foreign direct product rule" to cut it off from the global semiconductor supply chain, many speculated as to whether the company was doomed altogether. Indeed, even its own founder and CEO Ren Zhengfei said the firm was in a struggle for survival.

当美国对中国电信公司华为实施严厉制裁时，包括实施“外国直接产品规则”(foreign direct product rule)，将其从全球半导体供应链中切断时，许多人都在猜测这家公司是否注定要彻底完蛋。事实上，就连华为的创始人兼首席执行官任正非也表示，华为正在为生存而挣扎。

Some tough decisions were made in the wake of the damage, including the sale of its globally popular smartphone brand Honor to a private company, as well as in the inability to keep up its other leading brands due to chip shortages. In turn, its sales revenues tumbled.

在遭受损失之后，他们做出了一些艰难的决定，包括将其全球流行的智能手机品牌荣耀出售给一家私营公司，此外，由于芯片短缺，华为也无法跟上其他领先品牌的步伐。因此，它的销售收入大幅下降。

However, 2021 will be looked back on as the year when Huawei's fortunes began to change for the better having previously "hit the bottom". Through the course of this struggle, the last 12 months has seen the firm plant all the seeds for its revival and prepare to emerge stronger than ever, whilst also simultaneously sustaining its lead as the single global leader in 5G despite Washington pushing many of its allies to ban it. If the United States has sought to destroy this company and curtail its global presence and rise, they have not succeeded. Now, the comeback is on.

然而，2021年将被视为华为的命运开始好转的一年，此前华为曾“触底”。在过去的12个月里，华为种下了复兴的所有种子，准备变得比以往任何时候都更强大，同时也保持了其作为5G单一全球领导者的领先地位，尽管华盛顿敦促其许多盟友禁止5G。如果美国试图摧毁这家公司，限制其全球影响力和崛起，他们没有成功。现在，卷土重来开始了。

The Making of a software giant

软件巨头的诞生

To offset the damage dealt to its smartphone business, Huawei spent most of the year reorientating itself into a software, IT and cloud provider, an area which the company deemed "bulletproof" from American sanctions. Very quickly, Huawei raced around the world investing in IT academies in various developing countries, as well as pledging $300 million for startups in South East Asia, as well as 35 million Euros in European IT talent. By May of this year, it was reported by American think tank CSIS that Huawei had secured "70 deals in 41 countries" pertaining to cloud.

为了抵消其智能手机业务受到的损害，华为在今年的大部分时间里将自己重新定位为软件、IT和云服务提供商，该公司认为这一领域“刀枪不入”，不受美国制裁的影响。很快，华为在世界各地竞相投资发展中国家的IT学院，并承诺为东南亚的初创企业投资3亿美元，并向欧洲IT人才投资3500万欧元。据美国智库战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)报道，截至今年5月，华为已经在41个国家达成了“70笔”与云相关的交易。

In addition to this, 2021 also seen Huawei launch its own operating system, known as "HarmonyOS". Although often assumed to be simply a replacement for Google's Android after the imposition of US restrictions, the OS is designed to facilitate a wider vision of an "internet of things" spanning many devices including televisions, cars, household appliances and even a smart waterbottle! It currently has over 100 million users, and is to be launched globally in 2022. In conjunction with this, it continues to develop and expand the Huawei Appgallery store as its flagship provider of applications

除此之外，2021年华为还推出了自己的操作系统，被称为“HarmonyOS”。尽管在美国实施限制后，该操作系统通常被认为只是谷歌安卓系统的替代品，但该操作系统旨在促进更广泛的“物联网”愿景，涵盖包括电视、汽车、家用电器甚至智能水瓶在内的许多设备！它目前拥有超过1亿用户，并将于2022年在全球推出。与此同时，它继续开发和扩大华为AppGallery商店，作为其旗舰应用程序提供商。

Laying the foundations for a new supply chain

为新的供应链奠定基础

More exciting and less noticeable however, is Huawei's efforts towards rebuilding its supply chain in the wake of America's weaponization of the semiconductor industry against it. Throughout the year, the company through its various subsidiaries, such as Hubble Technologies, acquired operating stakes in a number of local semiconductor and lithography companies, showing a clear intention to develop the technologies which the US had sought to deprive from it. Rumours circulated by summer that Huawei would establish a "foundry" in Wuhan.

然而，更令人兴奋但不那么引人注目的是，在美国将半导体产业武器化后，华为正在努力重建其供应链。在这一年中，该公司通过其各种子公司，如哈勃科技(Hubble Technologies)，收购了一些当地半导体和光刻公司的运营股权，表明了开发美国试图剥夺其技术的明确意图。今年夏天，有传言称华为将在武汉建立一家“代工厂”。

Then, on December 28th, it was announced that the firm had created a new subsidiary with 600 million Yuan capital known as "Huawei Precision Manufacturing"- the latter term being defined as "the manufacture of inpidual pieces with extreme accuracy. It is used to make parts for various machines, including medical, aeronautical, and any other industry that requires identical parts to be created in large quantities."

然后，在12月28日，该公司宣布成立了一个新的子公司，投资6亿元人民币，被称为“华为精密制造”——后者的定义是“以极高的精度制造单个零件”。它被用来为各种机器制造零件，包括医疗、航空和其他任何需要大量制造相同零件的行业。”

Huawei denied the new establishment was a chip making company, but told the press it "will produce optical communication equipment optoelectronic devices; electronic Components and semiconductor discrete device manufacturing." This led to a lot of speculation that despite the denial, the company was nonetheless affiliating itself with the chip industry anyway, in particular the construction of devices would then be sold to chipmakers. Either way, either way a significant breakthrough.

华为否认新成立的公司是一家芯片制造公司，但对媒体表示，该公司“将生产光通信设备和光电子设备;电子元件和半导体分立器件制造。”这引发了很多猜测，尽管苹果否认了这一说法，但该公司仍然与芯片行业有关联，特别是设备的制造将被卖给芯片制造商。不管怎样，都是重大突破。

Powering ahead in 5G

5G技术的发展

But despite these other developments, 2021 soon established the reality that the United States had failed to deliver significant blows against Huawei's 5G carrier and network business, despite getting a number of allies to blacklist the firm. As of the end of the year, Huawei continues the hold the largest 5G market share in the world, almost double of that of its competitors, Nokia and Ericsson.

但尽管有这些其他进展，2021年很快就形成了一个现实，即美国未能对华为的5G运营商和网络业务进行重大打击，尽管美国让一些盟友将该公司列入了黑名单。截至今年年底，华为继续占据全球第一大5G市场份额，几乎是竞争对手诺基亚和爱立信的两倍。

It continues in tandem to hold the world's largest number of 5G patents. It has recently completed 5G networks in Bangladesh and Laos, is building in Brazil, whilst also winning contract with Ooredoo to build 5G in Qatar, Indonesia, Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Tunisia, Myanmar and Malpes.

中国继续保持着世界上5G专利最多的地位。该公司最近在孟加拉国和老挝完成了5G网络，正在巴西建设，同时还赢得了与Ooredoo的合同，在卡塔尔、印度尼西亚、阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、阿曼、突尼斯、缅甸和马尔代夫建设5G网络。

"Building Back Better"

“重建更美好”

The slogan "build back better" has frequently been used by the Biden administration to describe anti-China initiatives, such as on infrastructure, yet ironically the term could not be more suited to Huawei, who has spent the last 24 months laying the foundations to bounce back from all of the government assault against its enterprise.

拜登政府经常用“重建得更好”这一口号来描述反华举措，比如在基础设施方面，但具有讽刺意味的是，这个词再适合不过华为了。华为在过去24个月里一直在为从所有针对其企业的政府攻击中反弹奠定基础

Indeed, the return of Meng Wanzhou from house arrest in Canada had also become a symbol of the company's perseverance, as well as its change in fortunes. Huawei has been targeted because the United States wishes to curb China's rise in critical technologies, but their biggest mistake is ultimately underestimating the company's resolve, and by turning it into a political stakes battle, they have a lot to prove now. It's game on.

事实上，孟晚舟从加拿大的软禁中回来也成为该公司坚持不懈的象征，以及它命运的变化。华为之所以成为攻击目标，是因为美国希望遏制中国在关键技术领域的崛起，但他们最大的错误是最终低估了该公司的决心，把它变成了一场政治利益之战，他们现在有很多事情要证明。这是游戏。

加拿大网友的观点

They could ultimately get by without some US technology. They could switch off ARM processors (previously a UK company, then Japanese owned, and now moving to US owed under nVidia, but with US design centers in any case). That's just one of dozens of potential conflicts.

他们最终可以在没有美国技术的情况下过关。他们可以关闭ARM处理器(之前是一家英国公司，后来是日本公司，现在是英伟达的美国公司，但无论如何都是美国设计中心)。这只是数十个潜在冲突中的一个。

But their huge problem is chips. Silicon. Yes, Huawei has their own chip company, HiSilicon (a big part of the reason my Honor MagicWatch goes two weeks on a charge). But HiSilicon is fabless. They used TSMC for their state-of-the-art smartphone SoCs, but also their network processors, AI chips, 5G base station chips, etc. (Huawei is, or at least was, the largest telecommunications company on earth… it's not just phones with the best cameras).

但他们最大的问题是芯片。硅。是的，华为有自己的芯片公司HiSilicon(这是我的荣耀MagicWatch充电可以使用两周的主要原因)。但海思硅没有晶圆厂。他们用台积电制造最先进的智能手机soc，也用他们的网络处理器、AI芯片、5G基站芯片等(华为是，至少曾经是，地球上最大的电信公司……它不仅仅是拥有最好摄像头的手机)。

But TSMC is being cut off from supporting Huawei due to their use of US-made equipment and software. As would any company making state-of-the-art chips.

但由于台积电使用美国制造的设备和软件，台积电被切断了对华为的支持。任何制造最先进芯片的公司都会这么做。

The ultimate solution is political. Right now, Trump is a blithering idiot, wanted a big hammer with which to whack China, and so he and his mindless minions went after ZTE and Huawei. Now, it's absolutely the case that both companies were being investigate for anti-competitive behavior. But Trump's a guy who would ban your company based on a conspiracy theory he read on Twitter, and if saw political advantage of any kind in than ban, you have little recourse.

最终的解决办法是政治。现在，特朗普是一个胡言乱语的白痴，想要一把大锤来打击中国，所以他和他那些没脑子的跟班们对中兴和华为下手。现在，两家公司都因反竞争行为而接受调查，这是绝对的事实。但特朗普是一个会根据他在推特上看到的阴谋论就封杀你的公司的人，如果在封杀中看到任何形式的政治优势，你几乎没有追索权。

瑞典网友的观点

Yes they can do quite well. The American market is a large market but India, China, Russia, Africa, Central and South America and Europe markets are all much larger. They could not sell in North America at all and still be the worlds biggest smartphone sales company on the planet and do very well.

是的，他们可以做得很好。美国市场是一个很大的市场，但印度、中国、俄罗斯、非洲、中南美洲和欧洲市场都要大得多。他们根本不可能在北美销售，但仍然是这个星球上最大的智能手机销售公司，而且做得非常好。

Where do you think all that “American technology “ gets made when it comes to getting manufactures to make and assemble their parts? Huawei makes some very good products from low cost to expensive in many fields not just smartphones.

当涉及到制造商制造和组装零部件时，你认为所有的“美国技术”是在哪里制造的?华为不仅在智能手机领域，还在许多领域生产了从低成本到昂贵的好产品。

英国网友的观点

Yes it can, but it will slow it down.

是的，它可以，但它会减慢它。

What needs to be asked is, what will happen to the American technology companies that are going to lose their biggest market?

我们需要问的是，那些即将失去最大市场的美国科技公司会怎么样?

America is in this situation because Donald said trade war's are easy to win!

美国陷入这种局面是因为唐纳德说贸易战很容易赢!

The USA has shown without doubt that it's biggest failure was to underestimate China from day one and leaving a failed real estate salesman to deal with it was a massive mistake!

毫无疑问，美国已经表明，它最大的失败是从第一天就低估了中国，让一个失败的房地产推销员去处理它是一个巨大的错误!

英国网友的观点

A lot of things are going on in China as a result of the unprecedented behavior of the US or the department of commerce.

由于美国或美国商务部前所未有的行为，中国发生了很多事情。

China's national science and technology research center had responded and embarged a ramp up and focus effort on all items or technology that had been banned by the US deem critical to Chinese high tech development. This is a national high power research center where all the country top research scientists are researching. Most of the listed items are not new to them just need to be upgraded or polished or refined. It will not take long, probably with new technological breakthroughs. Including EUV machine, equivalent EDA system, etc.

中国国家科学技术研究中心已经做出回应，开始加大力度，集中精力研究被美国禁止的、被认为对中国高科技发展至关重要的所有项目或技术。这是一个国家高功率研究中心，所有国家顶尖的研究科学家都在这里研究。列出的大部分项目对他们来说都不是新的，只是需要升级、打磨或完善。这不会花太长时间，可能会有新的技术突破。包括EUV机、等效EDA系统等。

SMIC had successfully test production of 7nm chip with DUV machine pending delivery of EUV machine by ASML which they ordered way back 2018 due for delivery 2019 but yet to be delivered. Mass production of 7nm chip or N+1 chip by end of this year. Huawei may be able to benefit from this 7nm mass production. SMIC fabrication is led by a very capable scientist who was behind Samsung breakthrough from 28nm to 14nm uplifted Samsung on par with TSMC.

中芯国际已经成功测试了7纳米芯片的DUV机，等待阿斯麦的EUV机交付，他们早在2018年就订购了该芯片，预计2019年交付，但尚未交付。到今年年底，7nm芯片或n1芯片将大规模生产。华为可能会从这种7纳米量产中获益。中芯国际的制造是由一位非常有能力的科学家领导的，他推动了三星从28nm到14nm的突破，使三星与台积电并驾齐驱。

A Chinese group is finalizing the acquisition of some Japanese EUV machine manufacturers, with new funding from this Chinese group and the experience of the team of EUV machine Japanese scientists and engineers, it will not be long they can help meet the requirement of Chinese fab companies in China for latest EUV machines, the current bottleneck in China chip fabrication.

一个中国集团正在完成对一些日本EUV机器制造商的收购，有了来自这个中国集团的新资金和EUV机器日本科学家和工程师团队的经验，用不了多久，他们就能帮助满足中国在华工厂公司对最新EUV机器的需求，这是目前中国芯片制造的瓶颈。

ASML had relaxed their restriction of sale to a Chinese company, recent report confirmed they are delivering the latest version of DUV to their Chinese clients. Another potential solution to the bottleneck situations.

阿斯麦已经放松了对一家中国公司的销售限制，最近的报道证实他们正在向中国客户交付最新版本的DUV。瓶颈情况的另一个潜在解决方案。

Huawei too had been seen actively hiring EUV experienced engineers last few months, Huawei is not new to EUV technology, they had a team on this technology development and dappled with it more than 5 years ago. So it will not take long for them to come out with some solution. Probably jointly with some domestic fabricators that had been fabricating Huawei's lower-end chip.

华为在过去几个月里也在积极招聘有经验的EUV工程师，华为对EUV技术并不陌生，他们早在5年前就有一个技术开发团队。所以用不了多久他们就会拿出解决方案。可能是与一些制造华为低端芯片的国内制造商合作。

Huawei is also exploring Virtual machines as alternatives like cloud phones which Huawei reported had lunched, which has less dependence on build-in chips for smartphones but on cloud technology to power the phone.

华为也在探索虚拟机作为替代方案，比如华为已经推出的云手机。云手机不太依赖智能手机内置芯片，而是依靠云技术为手机提供动力。

On the software side, Huawei HongMeng 2.0 had launched and will be the OS for all her new smartphones like Mate 40, P30, P20, etc. Look like Google’s Android will lose substantial users in China and the world. Other Chinese brands may be using HongMeng too, The world will have a chance to used Huawei OS of the future HongMeng with new technology.

在软件方面，华为鸿蒙2.0已经发布，并将成为她所有新智能手机的操作系统，如Mate 40, P30, P20等。看来谷歌的Android将在中国和世界失去大量用户。其他中国品牌可能也在使用宏梦，世界将有机会使用华为的未来操作系统，新技术的宏梦。

Huawei also launched new strategies for US content free design, product, and production across the groups. Huawei smartphone, 5G base station, etc are already 100% US content free. There is no technology from the US suitable for Huawei cutting edge high tech products. Huawei technologies are at the forefront of her rivals, probably 3 to 5 years ahead.

华为还针对各集团在美国的无内容设计、产品和生产推出了新战略。华为智能手机、5G基站等已经100%免费提供美国内容。美国没有适合华为尖端高科技产品的技术。华为的技术领先于竞争对手，可能领先3到5年。

Similarly, the chip fabrication industry does not dependent on US technology, TSMC of Taiwan that help fabricate Huawei 5nm chips has equipment with US technology content of less than 10%.

同样，芯片制造行业也不依赖于美国技术，帮助华为制造5nm芯片的台湾台积电(TSMC)的设备中美国技术含量不到10%。

TSMC and Samsung specifically and the industry generally are reported to ramp up building production lines with US technology content free. Hopefully, that will be another solution.

据报道，特别是台积电和三星，整个行业都在加紧建设不含美国技术内容的生产线。希望这是另一种解决方案。

I do not see any problem for Huawei and China with these self-harm US adventures. Probably a slight short-term inconvenience, Huawei 3rd quater 2020 profit is increasing over the previous year. Look like the crushing of the US has minimum impact on Huawei's normal operation and profit.

我不认为华为和中国对这些自残的美国冒险有任何问题。可能是轻微的短期不便，华为2020年第三季度的利润比去年有所增长。看来美国的打压对华为的正常经营和利润影响极小。

I foresaw the expedite demise of US chip industry supply chains with these self-harm US adventures. It will be interesting to see how the free US content wave will propagate around the world and across the high tech industry.

我预见到美国芯片行业供应链会因这些自残的美国冒险行为而迅速消亡。看看美国的免费内容浪潮将如何传播到世界各地和整个高科技产业将是一件有趣的事情。